By Anri Amir David, Forbes Councils Member.
Most public debates about artificial intelligence focus on algorithmic breakthroughs, data scale, specialized hardware shortages or the emerging regulatory landscape. While those discussions are important, they miss another far more consequential contest, one that will be decided in the silent language machines use to talk to each other, writes Forbes.
I refer to this as the «Silent Protocol Wars.»
It’s no longer a race to see who has the most robust model, who has access to the largest set of data for training or who can get their chips out onto the battlefield the fastest. It’s a game of strategy to see who gets to set the rules for how these autonomous systems communicate with each other, negotiate with one another, perceive intent and make decisions.
Since the advent of the internet, standards like TCP/IP, HTTP and later 5G have unlocked entire industries by defining how systems communicate, move information and handle errors. These are foundational protocols, and without them, global connectivity would collapse. Today, as AI systems become increasingly autonomous, we’re entering a similar phase shift; one where protocols will determine interoperability, trust and safety between machines even across geopolitical boundaries.
Contrary to human communication, there are no norms, no cultural contexts, no diplomatic history and no escalation rules for machines. Rulesets govern how machines, including AI, operate, and when those rulesets are different, communication between AI systems collapses quickly.
This has implications for business leaders, as AI represents not just a technology but a rapidly emerging class of independent agents in supply chains, energy markets, finance markets, logistics, cybersecurity systems and other areas. In each of these domains, AI systems won’t just respond to humans; they negotiate with other AI systems and make split-second decisions that affect outcomes.
These are the emerging risks that currently threaten businesses.
Three Emerging Paradigms For Rival Protocols
In government circles, industry and standard organizations, three different models for communication protocols in AI are crystallizing:
1. The U.S. Model: Commercial Protocol Dominance
In the United States, major cloud platforms and AI vendors (OpenAI, Google, AWS, Anthropic) are effectively defining default communication semantics through market penetration. Since these protocols, or de facto standards, are widely used, deeply integrated into powerful ecosystems and well-supported, they find increasing traction. Commercial dominance thus becomes protocol dominance. This is analogous to how early TCP/IP adoption cemented U.S. leadership in the broader internet economy.
2. The China Model: State-Controlled Protocol Sovereignty
China’s approach embeds AI communication standards into national and export-driven digital infrastructure. With China codifying its AI protocols into telecom networks, cloud platforms and the technologies it exports, it effectively spreads its rules into every market that adopts its systems. In practice, that means protocol sovereignty becomes a new lever of geopolitical influence.
3. The EU Model: Regulation Protocol
The regulatory systems in Europe, such as the EU AI Act, essentially function as behavioral standards for AI. If companies are to gain access to the EU market, it becomes their responsibility to ensure that their systems are in line with regional expectations concerning management of risk, transparency and safety. This, in essence, translates to regulation as a protocol enforcer.
These three paradigms are competing visions of how autonomous systems should behave, interact and resolve conflict. The battleground, then, isn’t just about models but rather interpretation power.
The New Business Risk: Machine-Speed Miscalculation
CEOs and CIOs need to realize the brutal truth that autonomous misinterpretation at machine speed is the next systemic business risk. In a world where decisions are being made in milliseconds by AI agents, a mismatch in protocol would cascade before humans can react.
Scenarios to consider:
• A third-party AI agent incorrectly categorizes a status report from your logistics AI, triggering an unnecessary emergency rerouting.
• A financial AI, interpreting an exogenous cue as a systemwide shock, initiates its liquidation autonomously and causes broader market effects.
• An energy grid AI mistakenly interprets a neighbor grid’s energy demand signal, which affects local energy balance.
These sorts of breakdowns emerge from incompatible interpretations of signals, essentially a breakdown of shared language.
This is not an issue that affects just one company or another. It is soon to have its profound impacts on national security, economic stability and diplomatic outcomes. Platforms that control protocols will wield influence once reserved for governments. That’s unprecedented and underappreciated.
What Companies Should Do Now
The Silent Protocol Wars aren’t a theoretical future. They’re happening now. Leaders must act with urgency and clarity:
1. Audit cross-cloud and cross-agent interactions.
Map where your AI systems interface with other systems, partners or vendors. Understand where interpretation gaps may exist and what assumptions each system makes about incoming information.
2. Demand protocol transparency from vendors.
Avoid proprietary black boxes. Ask your suppliers how their models react to unknown inputs, interpret ambiguity and assess risk. Transparency in protocol design should be a key criterion in every purchasing discussion.
3. Plan for fragmentation.
There will be protocol fragmentation. Build resilience strategies that assume multiple ecosystems, standards and rulebooks. Design your systems to operate safely even when external agents don’t share your internal semantics.
4. Implement human override layers.
Autonomous systems will always move faster than we can, but it’s also important for humans to remain in the loop, especially when issues arise. Set clear escalation paths so machines can’t make irreversible decisions or bypass the moments where human judgment is necessary.
5. Participate in standards development.
Business leaders should participate in or support open standards bodies that are shaping AI communication protocols. If you don’t help write the rules, you may find your business constrained by rules written for someone else’s advantage.
The Coming Inflection Point
The most important war of the AI century won’t be fought over chips, datasets or raw compute. It will be fought over the rules machines use to talk, interpret and resolve conflicts with each other. The Silent Protocol Wars will shape interoperability, risk, geopolitical influence and economic power for decades.
Leaders who understand this now and act accordingly will be much better positioned to navigate the emerging world where autonomy, language and strategy converge.
The future of AI is about communication. And the rules of that communication will define who’s going to win and who’s going to be left behind.